Thursday, December 31, 2009

Nothing Lasts Forever

All that Cold November Rain led to a cold month of December for the Thrashers. Someone at Bird Watchers Anonymous recently posted a statistical breakdown of the Thrashers' performance historically on a month-by-month basis. Although I forget the specifics and couldn't find the post to save my life, I remember the data indicated that the Thrashers have tended to have a weaker December, January and February before playing well again down the stretch. As we are currently in said winter strife I am inclined to ponder how the coming two months play out. Although I will make no concrete predictions, here are my predictions/hopes for the 2010 segment of the 2009-2010 season.

-Todd White (15 in 38) will become more of a factor in the Thrashers' offense. I don't mean he ends the season with 70 points or even 60ish, which was my offseason prediction for his point total this season. He is currently on pace for less than 40 points, which simply will not do. While I don't think he becomes a major cog in the Thrashers' offense, I do think he will warm up and finish the season with slightly more than 45 points.
-Slava Kozlov (19 in 39) will not rebound significantly. This disappoints me, but I just can't see Kozzy having more than 50 points by the end of the season, 10-15 short of my offseason prediction. I'm thinking he stays steady and finishes with about 45 as well. The question is this: Does he come back for another season or more after this one or does he retire now having had a great career of more than 1000 games? And if he does come back, is 2010-2011 a big points season for Kozzy? He has had a series of up years alternating with down years in his career, so does he come back for one more?
-Bryan Little (15 in 36) continues to struggle. During the offseason, I felt the acquisition of Nik Antropov would mean that Bryan Little would be spending less time in and around the crease, which led me to the conclusion that he would become less effective. While I can't back that up with stats, the coaches did say they were going to try to keep Little out of the high traffic areas and let Antropov take that abusive location, and Little's points production has dropped off. The question here is this: Which Bryan Little is the real Bryan Little? The 30 goal, 50 point Bryan Little of 2008-2009, or the Bryan Little of 2009-2010 thus far who is on pace for less than 40 points?
-Ilya Kovalchuk will not finally reach the 100 point plateau or the 50 assist plateau. Before the season, I had predicted he would be a 50 goal, 50 assist, 100 point player in 09-10. I just can't see that happening at this point.
-Colby Armstrong will continue to put up average numbers. It has seemed to a few Thrashers fans that Army has not been entirely sold on this team and that he might be interested in leaving Atlanta. While I won't speculate, I will say that his numbers are on pace to be slightly less than last seasons, but he has been in just as many media features as last season, if not more.
-Ron Hainsey will continue to struggle. While I don't think he finishes the season with 20 points or less, I seriously doubt he makes the 35 point mark. There were many who thought he was ludicrously overpaid and that the term was far too long on his deal with Atlanta. I still think that the deal was close to right but still a little too lucrative, but his points totals this season and +/- would suggest that I am wrong.

At the start of this season, I believed this team was a playoff-caliber team, and I still do. But I'm concerned for this team's playoff hopes based on their play in December. If they play this way through most of January, I don't see them making the playoffs. And that's a bridge I'd rather not cross early.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Rebooting

At the start of this season, I attempted to do the whole "blog" thing about the Atlanta Thrashers, the team for which I root, but it didn't work very well, to say the least. Hopefully I'll encounter smoother sailing this time around.

I love me some hockey, some good BBQ and Brunswick Stew, a good drink, and some other stuff.